War Next Door Fails to Dent Housing Construction in Poland’s Border Regions

Low levels of housing construction have long characterized many municipalities in eastern Poland, and new data suggests that the war across the country’s eastern border has not been a decisive factor shaping investment decisions in those areas.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, concerns have emerged over whether proximity to the conflict might deter new housing development in Poland’s border regions. An analysis of construction activity, however, indicates that existing structural and economic factors played a far greater role.

Data from Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) shows that housing construction remains heavily concentrated in a small number of major metropolitan areas, a pattern that was firmly established well before 2022.

A review of the average annual number of homes and apartments completed per 1,000 residents between 2022 and 2024 confirms that eastern border counties have historically recorded low development levels, with limited exceptions around urban centers such as Suwałki and Białystok.

Many of the housing units completed during this period were launched prior to the outbreak of the war, reflecting investment decisions made before February 24, 2022.

Regional Construction Trends

An examination of new housing starts indexed to 2018 levels shows that while some eastern border regions experienced a slowdown after 2022, their performance broadly mirrored nationwide trends.

The analysis covers all of Poland as well as four eastern voivodeships—Lubelskie, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie, and Warmińsko-Mazurskie—along with their respective border counties.

In 2022 and 2023, construction activity declined more sharply than the national average in the Podlaskie voivodeship and its border counties, as well as in parts of Warmińsko-Mazurskie. While Podlaskie remained relatively weak, Warmińsko-Mazurskie later recorded a notably stronger rebound.

Urban Slowdown Drives Decline

A closer look at the data shows that the downturn in Podlaskie was largely driven by a sharp reduction in developer activity in its two largest cities, Białystok and Suwałki. These urban markets account for a disproportionate share of regional construction and were affected by broader market conditions seen across Poland.

By contrast, surrounding rural counties such as białostocki and suwalski did not experience comparable declines in new housing starts, suggesting the slowdown was linked to developer-led urban projects rather than heightened geopolitical risk.

Elsewhere along Poland’s eastern border, there is little evidence that the war had an extraordinary impact on housing investment. Persistently low construction levels in counties such as Hrubieszów or Bartoszyce reflect long-standing demographic and economic challenges that predate 2022.

Overall, the data indicates that structural trends—rather than proximity to the conflict—remain the dominant factor shaping housing development patterns in eastern Poland.