Trump’s Policies Stir Turmoil for US Ranchers Amid Record Beef Prices

American ranchers, a traditionally steadfast political base for Donald Trump, have navigated a month of sharp policy turns and market uncertainty. The turbulence began against a backdrop of high beef prices for both producers and consumers, stemming from the smallest U.S. beef cattle herd since the 1950s.

The industry’s tight supply was the result of several converging factors, including years of drought that strained grazing lands, the closure of the Mexican border to live cattle over screwworm concerns, and steep tariffs on foreign beef. These conditions pushed cattle prices upward for ranchers. At the same time, consumers faced rising costs at the grocery store, with a pound of ground beef reaching $6.32 in September, an 11 percent increase from the previous year. Economic data for the following month, including the consumer price index, was delayed by a government shutdown.

On October 19, President Trump made a casual remark about increasing beef imports from Argentina, a comment that quickly ignited backlash from the ranching community. They viewed the potential influx of foreign beef as a direct threat to their recent, hard-won economic gains. In response to their objections, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, criticizing the ranchers for their lack of gratitude. “If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years – Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that,” he wrote.

The president’s announcement on October 21 sent immediate shockwaves through the industry. Corbitt Wall, a commercial cattle manager and market analyst, noted that the cattle futures market—a key indicator of future and current sale prices—slid by more than 15 percent following the statement. “There was not a person in the cattle business on any level that was not insulted by that post,” Wall said, adding that the president “doesn’t realise the impact that a statement can make in our business.”

For many producers, the high cattle prices have not translated into broad prosperity. Oregon rancher David Packham explained that years of difficult seasons, marked by drought and rising feed costs, had forced many to sell off parts of their herds. The cost of essential equipment, from tractors to trucks, also soared due to pandemic-related supply chain issues and was expected to climb further under Trump’s tariffs. Packham noted he has often sold cattle at a loss and continues to operate with aging equipment to avoid prohibitive replacement costs. “When I say we’re not really making a whole lot of money, it’s because we have all this loss carryover,” he stated.

In an apparent effort to address ranchers’ long-standing grievances, the administration shifted its focus on November 7. President Trump announced that the Department of Justice would launch an investigation into the four dominant U.S. meatpackers—Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef—for “potential collusion, price fixing and price manipulation.” These four companies control over 80 percent of the market, a concentration that has historically left ranchers with little negotiating power. This was not the first such probe; a similar investigation was initiated during the first Trump administration in 2020 but was quietly closed without public findings just weeks before the new one was announced.

However, the timing of the new antitrust probe was met with some skepticism. James MacDonald, a research professor at the University of Maryland, described the announcement as “entirely for political consumption,” a reliable way to gain political favor with ranchers. Packham also questioned the timing, pointing out that due to the tight cattle market, packers themselves were operating on slimmer margins.

Underscoring the severity of the U.S. beef shortage, Tyson announced on Friday the closure of a beef-processing plant in Nebraska, a move affecting over 3,000 employees. MacDonald called the decision a “shock” that reflected the fundamental supply problem caused by years of drought and the slow, multi-year process of rebuilding herds. He noted that low heifer retention numbers—a measure of how many female cattle are kept for breeding—suggest the industry does not expect a quick recovery. “It’s Tyson saying we don’t think cattle supplies are going to recover anytime soon,” MacDonald explained.

Experts also cast doubt on whether the proposed import changes would significantly affect the market. MacDonald projected that increased imports from Argentina, which primarily consist of lower-grade lean beef and account for only 2 percent of imports, would not ease the overall shortage or lower consumer prices. The reintroduction of Brazilian beef was expected to have a greater impact on the import market but still hold little weight on the total beef supply.

The series of events has left the cattle industry in a state of flux. While the president’s recent actions have shaken confidence and created market volatility, analysts like Wall believe that the deeply conservative ranching community will ultimately remain loyal. “You look at what the other side has to offer, and there’s no way people are going to go for that,” Wall concluded. “So in the long run, they’ll stick with him.”