Poland’s Economy Braces for Major EU Fund Influx, Investment Surge Seen in 2026
Analysts see a potential 10% jump in investment driven by a unique convergence of EU funding streams, including up to €20 billion from the RRF alone.
Poland’s economy is poised for a significant investment-led expansion in 2026, shifting from the consumption-driven growth seen through much of 2025, according to a report from analysts at Citi Handlowy. The catalyst is an exceptional convergence of European Union funds set to flow into the country.
In total, Poland could receive EU funds equivalent to an additional 2.5% of GDP in 2026 compared to the previous year. Nearly half of this increase will consist of non-repayable grants, the analysts noted.
This powerful stimulus is expected to fuel a sharp acceleration in capital spending. “With such an impulse, investments will most likely accelerate significantly, and our forecast for their growth at 7.8% seems even conservative,” Citi Handlowy analysts wrote. “A result around 10% seems achievable if the private sector does not drastically reduce its investment outlays.”
The expected surge is attributed to several factors improving the outlook for fund absorption, which has been weak following a pre-2024 blockade.
A primary driver is the deadline for Poland’s National Recovery Plan (KPO), which operates under the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility. With 2026 being the final year for utilizing these funds, beneficiaries must complete projects by the end of August. This urgency could unlock as much as €20 billion for Poland from the RRF by year-end, more than tripling the amount received in 2025.
An additional growth impulse is expected from Cohesion Policy funds, the traditional EU financing mechanism that has supported Poland for two decades. As these investments gain momentum, Poland could receive well over ten billion euros from this source in 2026, an increase of about 50% from 2025 levels, the report stated.
Further bolstering the financial inflows is SAFE, a new EU loan instrument designed to support investments in defense and projects that enhance the bloc’s resilience to external threats. While the pace of absorption from this new facility is still unknown, Poland is eligible for €6.6 billion in pre-financing at the beginning of the year.
