Poland Braces for Layoff Wave as Rising Costs and Economic Pressures Mount

A new wave of group layoffs is set to hit Poland in 2026, with numerous companies across various sectors announcing significant workforce reductions. For many industries, the year is shaping up to be a period of difficult decisions and restructuring.

“According to estimates, group layoffs in 2025 were expected to affect around 80,000 people. Many companies that announced them will be implementing these decisions over the next two years,” Natalia Myskova, President of Smart Solutions HR, told Bankier.pl. “In some cases, the process began in 2025, with its completion scheduled for as late as 2027.”

“What is most worrying is that the companies that have decided on this step are very diverse—located throughout Poland, operating in different industries from IT to manufacturing, and of various sizes, from large corporations to family businesses,” she added.

The scale of planned reductions in 2026 is closely tied to the size and financial resilience of the companies, according to Mateusz Żydek, a labor market expert at the Randstad Research Institute.

“Although the overall percentage of firms planning layoffs has fallen year-on-year from 8% to 5%, the burden of these processes is unevenly distributed. Large enterprises show the greatest stability—only 1% of them plan reductions, while among the smallest, employing up to 50 people, this indicator reaches 7%,” Żydek said. “This may suggest that smaller businesses are feeling cost pressures more intensely and, after numerous economic disruptions, have less room to maintain current employment levels.”

Amid the economic slowdown, many organizations are “slimming down” their structures by cutting middle management and junior positions. “Data shows a steady decline in offers for entry-level individuals, making the threshold for entering the labor market higher,” Żydek noted. “Instead of broad recruitment drives, companies are focusing on the high efficiency of their existing, experienced teams.”

Services Sector as Economic Bellwether

A sectoral analysis reveals that while most industries maintain a positive hiring balance, the services sector is facing a distinct cooling.

“The only area where the percentage of companies planning reductions (10%) exceeds plans for new recruitment (7%) is in real estate and business services,” Żydek stated. “This industry often acts as an economic ‘litmus test,’ serving other sectors, so its weaker condition may signal a broader hold on business spending by contractors.”

Noticeable shifts are also occurring in IT and retail. While hiring plans in IT (13%) still outweigh reductions (3%), the industry is re-evaluating its business models. “We are observing a move away from mass hiring in advance towards a precise selection of competencies,” Żydek explained. In retail, 9% of firms plan layoffs compared to 14% planning to hire, a result of market consolidation and sales process optimization. Industry and construction remain the safest havens, where demand for workers continues to significantly outpace reduction plans.

Who Will Be Cutting Jobs?

Iwona Wieczyńska, a regional director at Grupa Progres, identified three main groups of employers most exposed to job cuts. The first includes sectors with low demand and high cost sensitivity, such as traditional non-e-commerce retail and some consumer services. The second group is traditional industry and some B2B services facing modernization and automation. The third comprises businesses hit by structural changes, like firms in finance, insurance, and traditional media, which are seeking savings through digital transformation.

Several major companies have already announced group layoffs for the coming year:

• Agora – A total of approximately 166 people will lose their jobs.
• Black Red White – The furniture manufacturer laid off over 420 people in 2025, with total reductions expected to reach 800 by 2026.
• Fujitsu Technology Solutions – Layoffs will affect over 830 employees in a process lasting until March 2026.
• UBS – The Swiss financial giant announced in February the closure of its Warsaw office, resulting in the loss of about 1,200 jobs over 2025-2026.
• Heineken Polska – Unofficial reports suggest up to 700 people will be laid off at the company’s service center in Krakow.
• Zakład Elektrotechniki Motoryzacyjnej in Ełk – The process of laying off 240 employees will begin early in the year.
• Ceramika Paradyż – The company will cut 140 jobs in 2026.

A Delayed Reaction to an ‘Explosive Mix’

Experts point to a combination of factors driving the cuts. “Poland is becoming more expensive,” said Myskova. “Since 2020, labor costs have been steadily rising with the minimum wage. Many companies are moving production and logistics centers to cheaper EU countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, or Romania.” She also cited automation reducing demand for manual labor, the rise of AI impacting the IT sector, and increased manufacturing competition from China, particularly in the automotive parts industry where Poland is a major producer.

Żydek described the decisions as a delayed reaction to an accumulation of burdens from recent years. “Inflation, sharp increases in energy and fuel costs, and dynamic wage growth have created a mix that is now, with some delay, cooling the labor market,” he said. While 75% of firms rate their financial condition as good, he noted that smaller entities often lack the reserves to sustain employment amid economic stagnation, which 54% of respondents anticipate.

First Quarter Will Be Key

The year 2026 is not expected to bring a wave of mass layoffs but rather a period of deep correction in the labor market. The phenomenon will likely be selective, primarily affecting industries and firms with lower capital resilience as they adapt to rising costs and technological shifts.

“The first quarter of 2026 will be a key test,” Żydek concluded. “If an improved economic climate translates into increased orders and sales, the percentage of firms planning reductions may fall. In such a scenario, today’s cautious staffing policies could quickly give way to a new wave of recruitment.”