Oslo Prepares for Geopolitical Tensions as Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado Awaits Nobel Peace Prize
The upcoming ceremony in Norway brings high stakes for Machado and diplomatic challenges for the host nation amid escalating regional tensions.
The usually tranquil city of Oslo is bracing for an unprecedented event, a level of geopolitical intensity not witnessed since Barack Obama arrived to accept his unexpected Nobel Peace Prize over 15 years ago. Now, the coveted award, one that Donald Trump reportedly yearns for, has been bestowed upon a figure from a distant corner of the world, who may indeed appear to claim it in person.
A central question looms: will Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado undertake the perilous journey to the Norwegian capital to personally receive the medal and prize money, and, crucially, will she be permitted to return safely afterward? Yet, this is not the sole geopolitical surprise confronting the small nation’s Nobel Committee.
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Adding another layer of complexity is the potential, and equally surprising, attendance of controversial Argentine President Javier Milei. The prospect of the self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist, known for his MAGA sympathies and chainsaw symbolism, meeting the secluded Venezuelan leader who spearheads resistance against Nicolás Maduro, presents an explosive combination.
This scenario demands extensive preparation from this quiet Nordic corner, encompassing both security and diplomatic considerations.
Against a backdrop of a U.S. Navy armada deployed in the Caribbean and former President Trump’s threats to extend attacks on alleged sea-borne drug traffickers to land, tensions have been escalating across the region regarding any attempts to unseat Maduro.
For Machado, who successfully rallied millions to vote for a substitute candidate in last year’s elections, this situation places her campaign for democratic transition under an unprecedented spotlight. However, if she departs her undisclosed refuge to accept the prize in Oslo on December 10th—a pivotal moment for her opposition movement—there remains no guarantee that Maduro will allow her re-entry into Venezuela.
“This is a life-or-death operation for Machado,” stated Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “If she manages to leave and return, she would appear untouchable, potentially revitalizing an opposition that is much weaker within Venezuela than abroad. But if this fails and she remains in exile, Machado risks condemning herself to irrelevance.”
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While the stakes may not be as existentially high for the Norwegian hosts, the upcoming days are nonetheless poised to be uncomfortable. The Norwegian government had already experienced several disagreements with the United States earlier this year, stemming from investment decisions by its $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund, which drew criticism from the MAGA group, and the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to someone other than Trump. Although these decisions were not the government’s direct responsibility, officials in Oslo acknowledge that they bear the brunt of the criticism regardless.
Norway, primarily recognized in peace mediation circles for its efforts in the 1993 Oslo Accords between Israel and Palestine, has historically served as an active intermediary between the Venezuelan opposition and the Maduro regime. Although that process is currently stalled, the Nobel Committee’s decision to recognize Machado likely signals the end of that diplomatic role, according to Benedicte Bull, a Latin America expert at the University of Oslo’s Centre for Global Sustainability.
Furthermore, there is apprehension that the Peace Prize events could coincide with an ongoing conflict, given the escalating U.S. military presence, potentially triggering unintended consequences both around and after the ceremony. The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs this week joined other European governments in issuing a warning against all travel to Venezuela.
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Adding to the discomfort for some in Norway is Machado’s stance; she publicly thanked Trump in her acceptance of the award and has advocated for the use of U.S. force as a necessary means to remove Maduro from power. This position has fueled rumors of a boycott in certain sectors, driven by fears that what is intended as a celebration of peace could transform into a platform for voices supporting military action in the laureate’s home country. Bjørnar Moxnes, from Norway’s far-left Red Party, reacted to Machado’s Nobel announcement in October by stating it was “almost impossible to find a candidate closer to Donald Trump” and that naming her a laureate was a “bad idea.”
“Norway’s approach to peace and democracy building has always been based on international law,” Bull affirmed. While Maduro has consistently violated international statutes, “the fact that Machado refuses to condemn extrajudicial killings and that her strategy now appears to be that all means are valid to overthrow the illegal regime is completely contrary to Norway’s approach,” she added.
Norway proceeds on the assumption that Machado will attend the award ceremony, but concerns exist regarding who might comprise her delegation, particularly if it evolves into an unofficial right-wing summit, according to an individual familiar with the government’s position. Others remain perplexed by the unfolding events.
Presidents Daniel Noboa of Ecuador and José Raúl Mulino of Panama have confirmed their attendance, alongside Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar from Southern Florida. Leaders from Guatemala and Paraguay are also considered potential attendees. Noboa, who attended Trump’s inauguration in January, has adopted a stringent stance against drug trafficking gangs, while anti-immigrant sentiment propelled Mulino to power last year on a platform to close the Darién Gap, his country’s perilous jungle crossing.
Speculation also includes the possible attendance of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, a close ally of Trump who is currently receiving planeloads of U.S. deportees to house in Salvadoran prisons.
Milei has not yet confirmed his presence but has publicly congratulated Machado on social media, declaring that she inspires “the fight against Venezuela’s narco-dictatorship.” This language echoes Trump’s assertions that Maduro leads a drug trafficking cartel, and his justification for using the U.S. military to target what the administration claims are drug trafficking vessels and their occupants—deaths that Machado attributes to Maduro.
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“He, and the rest of the drug cartels in power in Venezuela, should stop these activities to avoid more deaths,” Machado stated in an interview with Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain, published on October 31.
“We are facing a narcoterrorist structure that has converted Venezuelan territory, Venezuelan resources, Venezuelan institutions into the activities of a criminal cartel,” Machado asserted. “I believe the escalation that has taken place is the only way to force Maduro to understand that it is time to leave.”
The Norwegian media outlet NRK published a video interview with Machado on Tuesday evening, in which she declared that she is “doing everything possible” to come to Oslo and that she “will return” to Venezuela. If recent history offers any indication, Machado might be permitted to re-enter the country if she travels to Norway, only to then be allowed to languish or “dry up,” a strategy the Chavista government previously employed with her predecessor, former opposition leader Juan Guaidó.
In March 2019, Guaidó—then recognized by the United States and dozens of other countries as Venezuela’s interim president—defied a travel ban to attend a concert on the Colombian side of the border in support of humanitarian aid efforts, before embarking on a regional tour. Authorities ultimately allowed him to return, but failing to secure military support or fulfill his promise of quickly ousting Maduro, his popularity began to wane. The government refrained from issuing an arrest warrant until he fled into exile in 2023.
Some pollsters suggest a similar trajectory for Machado, with indications that her popularity has also begun to diminish as she largely operates from the shadows.
As the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony approaches, the question of María Corina Machado’s journey to Oslo and her subsequent return to Venezuela remains fraught with uncertainty and high political stakes, mirroring historical precedents while navigating a complex and tense regional landscape.
