Global Investment Shifts Toward Resilient Economies as Geopolitical Tensions Mount
A new report forecasts 2026 as a pivotal year for foreign direct investment, with innovation and stability becoming key drivers for capital.
Foreign direct investment is set for a “transitional year” in 2026, as the established model of globalization gives way to a new landscape shaped by fresh risks and competitive pressures, according to a report from the Polish economic Institute (PIE).
The analysis, which cites a survey of 101 industry experts and leaders by FDI Intelligence, points to a climate of moderate optimism tempered by a sharp awareness of new challenges. Geopolitical tensions emerged as the primary concern, accelerating shifts in global supply chains and reinforcing the trend of friend-shoring.
Survey respondents also highlighted economic and financial risks, including U.S. customs policy and potential disruptions in financial markets, particularly those linked to the artificial intelligence revolution.
The report suggests that an economy’s resilience to political and geopolitical shocks will become a key determinant for attracting foreign capital. Competitiveness is increasingly based on innovation, especially in AI technology, rather than on traditional factors like protectionism, tax incentives, or low costs.
Investors from the Asia-Pacific and Gulf regions are expected to grow in global importance. A surge is also anticipated in strategic investments tied to digital transformation, critical raw materials, and semiconductors. Ongoing armed conflicts are fueling capital flows into the defense and aerospace sectors.
Poland’s performance in 2025 illustrates some of these trends, with the country attracting $11.2 billion in announced greenfield projects, accounting for 1.7% of the global total. The largest single investment was valued at $1.3 billion.
While the IT sector accounted for one-sixth of all projects by number, the renewable energy industry drew the most capital, securing $2.8 billion in investments.
